MGT613 Operation monitoring Solved MCQS Chapert 3b by wilhelm StevensonForecasting 52. Forecasts based upon judgment and opinion don"t includeA. Executive opinionB. Salesperson opinionC. Second opinionsD. Client surveysE. Delphi methodsSecond opinions usually refer to clinical diagnoses, not need forecasting.

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53. In business, forecasts are the communication for:A. Capacity planningB. BudgetingC. Sales planningD. Manufacturing planningE. All of the aboveA wide range of locations depend on forecasting.54. I m sorry of the following features would not typically be considered typical to every forecasts?A. Presumption of a steady underlying causal system.B. Actual results will differ rather from suspect values.C. Historical data is easily accessible on which to basic the forecast.D. Prediction for groups of items have tendency to be more accurate than forecasts because that individual items.E. Accuracy reduce as the time horizon increases.In part forecasting instances historical data space not available.55. I beg your pardon of the adhering to is not a action in the forecasting process?A. Determine the purpose and also level of information requiredB. Remove all assumptionsC. Establish a time horizonD. Select a forecasting modelE. Screen the forecastWe cannot remove all assumptions.56. Minimizing the amount of the squared deviations roughly the line is called:A. Typical squared error techniqueB. Typical absolute deviationC. Double smoothingD. The very least squares estimationE. Predictor regressionLeast squares estimations minimizes the amount of squared deviations roughly the approximated regression function.57. The two basic approaches come forecasting are:A. Mathematical and also statisticalB. Qualitative and quantitativeC. Judgmental and qualitativeD. Historical and also associativeE. Specific and approximationForecast ideologies are one of two people quantitative or qualitative.58. Which of the adhering to is not a type of judgmental forecasting?A. Executive, management opinionsB. Sales pressure opinionsC. Consumer surveysD. The Delphi methodE. Time series analysisTime collection analysis is a quantitative approach.59. Accuracy in forecasting have the right to be measure by:A. MSEB. MRPC. MAPED. MTME. A & CMSE is median squared error; MAPE is median absolute percent error.60. I beg your pardon of the adhering to would it is in an advantage of using a sales pressure composite to build a demand forecast?A. The sales staff is least affected by an altering customer needs.B. The sales force can quickly distinguish between customer desires and also probable actions.C. The sales employee is often mindful of customers" future plans.D. Salespeople are the very least likely come be affected by recent events.E. Salespeople are the very least likely to be biased by sales quotas.Members that the sales force should it is in the organization"s tightest connect with that customers.61. Which expression most closely describes the Delphi technique?A. Associative forecastB. Consumer surveyC. Collection of questionnairesD. Emerged in IndiaE. Historic dataThe questionnaires room a way of fostering a consensus amongst divergent perspectives.62. The forecasting method which provides anonymous questionnaires to achieve a consensus forecast is:A. Sales pressure opinionsB. Customer surveysC. The Delphi methodD. Time collection analysisE. Executive, management opinionsAnonymity is crucial in Delphi efforts.63. One reason for utilizing the Delphi an approach in forecasting is to:A. Stop premature agreement (bandwagon effect)B. Accomplish a high degree of accuracyC. Preserve accountability and responsibilityD. Have the ability to replicate resultsE. Prevent hurt feelingsA bandwagon deserve to lead to popular however potentially inaccurate philosophies to drown up other vital considerations.64. Detecting non-randomness in errors can be excellent using:A. MSEsB. MAPsC. Regulate ChartsD. Correlation CoefficientsE. StrategiesControl charts graphically depict the statistical actions of estimate errors.65. Gradual, long-term movement in time collection data is called:A. Seasonal variationB. CyclesC. Rarely often rare variationD. TrendE. Arbitrarily variationTrends move the time collection in a permanent direction.66. The major difference in between seasonality and also cycles is:A. The expression of the repeating patternsB. The size of the variationC. The capability to attribute the pattern to a causeD. The direction the the movementE. Over there are just 4 seasons but 30 cyclesSeasons take place within time periods; cycles happen across multiple time periods.67. Averaging approaches are useful for:A. Distinguishing in between random and also non-random variationsB. Smoothing the end fluctuations with time seriesC. Eliminating historic dataD. Offering accuracy in forecastsE. Average peopleSmoothing help forecasters see past random error.68. Putting estimate errors right into perspective is ideal done usingA. Exponential smoothingB. MAPEC. Straight decision rulesD. MADE. HindsightMAPE depicts the forecast error relative to what to be being forecast.69. Utilizing the latest monitoring in a sequence of data to forecast the next duration is:A. A moving typical forecastB. A naive forecastC. An significantly smoothed forecastD. An associative forecastE. Regression analysisOnly one item of details is required for a naïve forecast.70. Because that the data offered below, what would the naive estimate be because that the next duration (period #5)?

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A. 58B. 62C. 59.5D. 61E. Cannot tell from the data givenPeriod 5"s projection would be period 4"s demand.71. Moving mean forecasting techniques do the following:A. Automatically reflect an altering patterns in the dataB. Lead alters in the dataC. Smooth sports in the dataD. Operate individually of recent dataE. Aid when establishments are relocatingVariation is smoothed out in moving mean forecasts.72. I beg your pardon is no a properties of straightforward moving averages used to time collection data?A. Smoothes random variations in the dataB. Weights each historical value equallyC. Lags transforms in the dataD. Requires only last period"s forecast and actual dataE. Smoothes real variations in the dataSimple relocating averages can require several durations of data.73. In bespeak to boost the responsiveness the a forecast made utilizing the moving typical technique, the number of data point out in the mean should be:A. DecreasedB. IncreasedC. Multiplied by a bigger alphaD. Multiplied by a smaller sized alphaE. Eliminated if the foolish is better than the MSEFewer data points result in more responsive relocating averages.74. A forecast based on the previous projection plus a percent of the projection error is:A. A naive forecastB. A an easy moving mean forecastC. A centered moving typical forecastD. An exponentially smoothed forecastE. One associative forecastExponential smoothing uses the previous projection error to shape the next forecast.75. I beg your pardon is no a characteristic of exponential smoothing?A. Smoothes arbitrarily variations in the dataB. Weights each historic value equallyC. Has an easily changed weighting schemeD. Has actually minimal data warehouse requirementsE. Smoothes actual variations in the dataThe most recent duration of demand is offered the many weight in exponential smoothing.76. I beg your pardon of the complying with smoothing constants would certainly make an exponential smoothing forecast tantamount to a naive forecast?A. 0B. .01C. .1D. .5E. 1.0An alpha that 1.0 leads to a naïve forecast.77. Straightforward exponential smoothing is being offered to estimate demand. The previous projection of 66 turned out to be 4 units less than really demand. The next forecast is 66.6, implying a smoothing constant, alpha, equal to:A. .01B. .10C. .15D. .20E. .60A ahead period"s projection error the 4 units would bring about a adjust in the estimate of 0.6 if alpha equates to 0.15.78. Provided an actual demand of 59, a previous projection of 64, and an alpha that .3, what would certainly the forecast for the next duration be using basic exponential smoothing?A. 36.9B. 57.5C. 60.5D. 62.5E. 65.5Multiply the previous period"s estimate error (-5) by alpha and also then add to the previous period"s forecast.79. Provided an actual need of 105, a forecasted worth of 97, and an alpha of .4, the straightforward exponential smoothing projection for the next duration would be:A. 80.8B. 93.8C. 100.2D. 101.8E. 108.2Multiply the ahead period"s estimate error (8) through alpha and then include to the ahead period"s forecast.

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80. Which of the following feasible values of alpha would cause exponential smoothing to respond the most easily to forecast errors?A. 0B. .01C. .05D. .10E. .15Larger worths for alpha correspond with greater responsiveness.